Background papers
Background papers
The pages above stay short. These papers carry the argument in full, for readers who want to test it.
Three papers
The evidence base for agentic simulation
What the literature on wargaming, agent-based modeling, language-model agents, and structured expert elicitation supports, and the gaps that remain, stated plainly.
Read the paper →Method: design, validation, and bias control
The method as built: ontology, time structure, agent architecture, hybrid adjudication, the elicitation protocol, the four gates, the human-in-the-loop spectrum, and the pre-registered bias battery, closing with the claim boundary.
Read the paper →Agentic digital twins: a systematic review
A PRISMA review of agentic digital twins across domains, placing validation as the field's central open problem and setting out what a twin of a contested political-economic system can and cannot claim.
Read the paper →