The service

A service delivered with your experts

SYG runs the design workshop, builds and pilots the simulation, measures its bias, and hands over the record and a method note. Your experts decide at four gates.

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SYG Consulting mark, reversed

Fit

A good fit

  • Several discrete options on the table
  • Many actors, with politics inside each
  • A horizon of one to five years
  • Shocks frequent enough to dominate any single storyline

A poor fit

  • Single-actor optimization
  • Questions that turn on unavailable knowledge of an actor
  • Horizons short enough for one expert narrative
  • A point estimate as the output

The engagement in eight phases

  1. Framing

    Question fit, options, horizon, configuration, and a risk table.

  2. Design

    Pre-load, silent review, workshop, change register, freeze.

  3. Build

    The engine is adapted to the frozen pack.

  4. Pilot and bias sweep

    Staged runs, then the pre-registered battery.

  5. Client confirmation

    A design-and-pilot report, a decision form, the browsable record.

  6. Corrections and verification

    A new pack version carries your decisions; fresh runs pass their gates.

  7. Production

    Hundreds to thousands of runs per option.

  8. Handover

    Database, record, frozen pack, method note, replication kit.

Engagement lifecycle with four expert gatesENGAGEMENT LIFECYCLEEight phases, four expert gates0FramingQuestion-class fit, alternatives, horizon, configuration, deliverables1DesignPre-load, silent review, workshop, change register, decisions fileGATE · DESIGN FROZENValidator passes; hash computed; design confirmation signed — expert group2BuildEngine adapted to the pack; prompts generated and checked for parity3PilotStaged runs with automatic gates and a spend ceiling; bias batteryGATE · PILOT PASSEDMechanics reliable; plausibility reviewed; battery responded to — design owner and experts4Client confirmationDesign-and-pilot report, decision form, player and event book, record5Corrections and verificationContent validator first, then referee and ensemble; four-run verificationGATE · CALIBRATION CLEAREDVerification gates pass, including mobility; anchors reviewed — production does not start before this6ProductionHundreds to thousands of runs per option; extended where not convergedGATE · VALIDATION REVIEWSampled production trajectories read by experts; residual bias measured and disclosed7HandoverDatabase, record, frozen pack, method note, replication kit; 90-day supportBuild does not start until the design is frozen; production does not start until calibration clears. Experts re-confirmed at every gate.
Figure 1.Build waits for the frozen design; production waits for calibration.

What your experts do

  • Review every entity in silence: confirm, not my area, revise, flag
  • Spend one workshop resolving what the review surfaced
  • Answer a decision form after the pilot
  • Decide at the four gates
Elicitation protocol: pre-load to freezeDESIGN ELICITATIONThe workshop protocol, adapted from IDEA1Pre-loadDesign team drafts actors, factions with sources and anchors, variables, options, events withprovisional probabilities, glossary.2Silent reviewINVESTIGATEEach expert answers per entity: confirm · not my area · revise · flag, plus free-text suggestions.Every response is logged per expert and per field3WorkshopDISCUSSFour hours: table sessions by domain, then a clinic on the questions the tables surfaced. Splits goto the register, anonymised.4Change registerESTIMATEEvery revise, flag and suggestion becomes a change item with evidence, current content, proposedchange, decision required.Rule: adding agents adds noise5Decisions fileOpen questions answered by the design owner, recorded against the pack version they govern.6FreezeAGGREGATEValidator pass, SHA-256 hash, tagged version; the design confirmation document is generated forsignature.Gate: design frozenThe register of expert splits is the distinctive output: recorded splits are legitimate outcomes and become sweep parameters.Rests on the expert-elicitation literature (IDEA, Cooke, SSHAC centre-body-range, ICD 203), not on structured analytic techniques.

What you receive

  • Trajectory database

    Every run, decision, message, and event in one self-contained file.

  • Browsable simulation record

    Every decision with its reasoning, every descriptor by quarter, readable offline.

  • Method note

    What the simulation can and cannot claim, and its residual bias.

  • Replication kit

    The frozen pack with its hash, the decisions file, and pinned model versions.

Mock screen: browsable simulation recordsimulation record — self-contained, opens offlineSYGOverviewRunsDecisionsMessagesEventsDescriptorsPlayersSIMULATION RECORD · FROZEN DESIGN V0.1.3DecisionsRuns · decisions · messages · events · adjudications, filterable by option and quarterExport viewRUNR-07OPTIONOption BQUARTERQ5POSTUREAllFLAGAllSearch reasoning…RUN · Q · RFACTIONACTIONPOSTUREINT.FLAGR-07 · Q5 · 1Governing coalition — senior partnerConvene emergency cabinet sessionhold2—R-07 · Q5 · 1Security establishment — hard-line wingExpand cordon operationsescalate4yesR-07 · Q5 · 1Armed movement — political bureauSignal readiness for indirect talkssignal1—R-07 · Q5 · 1External power A — foreign ministryCondition assistance on restraintinitiate3—R-07 · Q5 · 2Civil authority — executiveRequest donor bloc guaranteesrespond2—R-07 · Q5 · 2Population proxy AApproval shifts against coalitionsignal2—R-07 · Q5 · 2Regional actor B — leadershipOffer mediation channelde-escalate2—DESCRIPTORS BY QUARTER · R-07 · OPTION BDESCRIPTORQ1Q2Q3Q4Q5Q6Q7Q8Q9Q10Q11Q12Coalition stability332223332233Security coordinationononononoffoffoffonononononGovernance capacity222333344444External backinghighhighhighhighhighhighmidmidmidmidmidmidIllustrative values. Every row links to the adjudication that produced it, with its reasoning and causal field.

Three ways to engage

  • A single question

    One comparison of several options over one horizon, framing to handover.

  • A standing capability

    A versioned design you return to with new options and events.

  • A design sprint

    The workshop protocol alone: a reviewed world and a recorded uncertainty space.

Questions we are asked

Is this a forecast? No run is a forecast. The output says how often each outcome appears under each option, under the design's assumptions.

How do you handle bias? By measuring it before results are read, with a battery fixed before the data is opened.

Can we see inside? Every decision, message, and event is in the record, and any claim traces to run, decision, persona, and source.

What data do you need? Your internal assessments, public documented positions, and historical decision records.

What if our experts disagree? The split is recorded with anonymized positions and becomes a sweep parameter.

Can our experts play? They can overrule flagged adjudications, or take a seat against the agent board, the least-evidenced mode in the literature.

Start with the question.

Tell us the options you are weighing and the actors who would respond. We will say whether the method fits.

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